確率は 1/2 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/2 かしら
だいたいあってる
$ ruby -e 'c=0;n=100000;x="ことりこ".chars;n.times{c += 1 if x.map{x.sample} == x};puts c.to_f/n'0.01555
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